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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."